In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that the natural gas spot price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $3.79 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2022, slightly less than its 2021 average of $3.91/MMBtu. Natural gas prices increased between March and early October 2021, but they declined in the last three months of the year. We expect natural gas prices to decline slightly in 2023, averaging $3.63/MMBtu, as growth in dry natural gas production outpaces growth in domestic demand and exports.