We forecast lower average natural gas bills for U.S. consumers that heat their homes primarily with natural gas this winter heating season (November 1 to March 31) compared with last winter. The lower residential winter natural gas expenditures we forecast in the 2023 Winter Fuels Outlook supplement to our October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) are due, mainly, to lower natural gas prices. The wholesale U.S. natural gas spot price at the national benchmark Henry Hub started last winter heating season averaging $5.66 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in November. This November, we expect the Henry Hub price to be 45% lower than last year, averaging $3.12/Mcf.